Thursday, April 21, 2011
Big Turnaround in North Carolina?
Beverly Perdue won a tight, contentious gubernatorial race against former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory in 2008, winning by just over 3% of the total vote. A Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll released on April 20 shows McCrory ahead of Perdue by 11% among likely North Carolina voters for 2012. SurveyUSA also took their own reading on April 14 and found McCrory ahead by 12%. The turnaround is staggering. We already know the Democratic Party will spend millions in North Carolina in 2012, but one might argue they should focus efforts elsewhere, where they may have a better chance of success.
Huckabee the Early Favorite in Iowa
An April 20 poll from Public Policy Polling (PPP) among likely Iowa Republican caucus participants shows Huckabee with a comfortable lead in the state with the first primary tally, scheduled January 16, 2012. Huckabee won support from 27% of survey respondents, with Mitt Romney polling in a distant second with 16%. Donald Trump secured 14%. Gingrich 9%, Palin 8%, Bachman 6%, Paul 6%, Pawlenty 5%.
Of course this is a very early reading, but this has to look promising for Huckabee. This is also concerning for Tim Pawlenty and Michelle Bachman, as they are counting on doing well in Iowa to gain momentum.
Of course this is a very early reading, but this has to look promising for Huckabee. This is also concerning for Tim Pawlenty and Michelle Bachman, as they are counting on doing well in Iowa to gain momentum.
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
How 2010 Census, Realigned Electoral College Will Affect 2012
President Obama's 2008 election win can easily be characterized as a landslide with a 365 electoral college votes to McCain's 173. If Obama wins the exact same states with the revised electoral college numbers, he still wins easily with a margin of 358 to 180. That is what they call a "big IF."
It is no coincidence the Democratic party decided to host its 2012 convention in Charlotte, NC. Obama won North Carolina with 50 percent of the vote and a 14,000 vote margin- out of approximately 4.25 million votes cast. North Carolinians should expect a barrage of presidential campaign ads in 2012. Their 15 electoral votes represent a large swing in a state that is truly up for grabs.
Neighboring Virginia, with 13 votes, went to Obama with a slightly larger margin (53%). However, an April 8 poll from Roanoke College shows Senator George Allen ahead of Tim Kaine by 13 points. Comparing a senate race to a presidential one is definitely apples to oranges, but Kaine is a big name in Virginia and the margin is staggering. Republicans also gained two house seats in Virginia during the 2010 campaign. There seems to be a strong undercurrent against Democrats here- but it is truly a toss up as well.
Anyone listening to election coverage in the previous decade already knows Florida and Ohio are huge battleground states, and that will likely remain the same in 2012. Florida is perhaps slightly more important now that it gained two electoral college votes with Ohio losing two. The strategy for Florida is also different because it does not have the huge areas leaning definitely for one party, like southern Ohio (Republican) or Cleveland area (Democratic). Republicans gained three house seats in Florida and four in Ohio. This puts another 18 votes in Ohio and 29 in Florida up for grabs.
So after four states, we've covered 75 electoral votes. Even if all these huge gains go in favor of the Republicans (and this would require a very favorable political landscape), the margin is still 283 to 255 in favor of the incumbent President Obama. Therefore, Republicans will also need to pick up Indiana's 11 votes (Obama won with 50% there in 2008), and another state. Indiana is by no means a lock, but is probably the best chance of a pick up for a Republican candidate.
So after all of this, Republicans will still need one more state. After the five states we've covered so far (Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia), John McCain did not have even a close contest in any other state. The next closest races were in Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire- each with a 9% gap. This does not bode well for Republicans. They have to hope for an economic status quo in 2012, as well as an inspiring and capable candidate.
It boils down to win Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and any one of: Colorado, Iowa or New Hampshire- AND- at the same time hold onto all other states, and the Republican candidate wins. That's a very steep hill to climb and a turn-around not seen since Clinton in 1992.
It is no coincidence the Democratic party decided to host its 2012 convention in Charlotte, NC. Obama won North Carolina with 50 percent of the vote and a 14,000 vote margin- out of approximately 4.25 million votes cast. North Carolinians should expect a barrage of presidential campaign ads in 2012. Their 15 electoral votes represent a large swing in a state that is truly up for grabs.
Neighboring Virginia, with 13 votes, went to Obama with a slightly larger margin (53%). However, an April 8 poll from Roanoke College shows Senator George Allen ahead of Tim Kaine by 13 points. Comparing a senate race to a presidential one is definitely apples to oranges, but Kaine is a big name in Virginia and the margin is staggering. Republicans also gained two house seats in Virginia during the 2010 campaign. There seems to be a strong undercurrent against Democrats here- but it is truly a toss up as well.
Anyone listening to election coverage in the previous decade already knows Florida and Ohio are huge battleground states, and that will likely remain the same in 2012. Florida is perhaps slightly more important now that it gained two electoral college votes with Ohio losing two. The strategy for Florida is also different because it does not have the huge areas leaning definitely for one party, like southern Ohio (Republican) or Cleveland area (Democratic). Republicans gained three house seats in Florida and four in Ohio. This puts another 18 votes in Ohio and 29 in Florida up for grabs.
So after four states, we've covered 75 electoral votes. Even if all these huge gains go in favor of the Republicans (and this would require a very favorable political landscape), the margin is still 283 to 255 in favor of the incumbent President Obama. Therefore, Republicans will also need to pick up Indiana's 11 votes (Obama won with 50% there in 2008), and another state. Indiana is by no means a lock, but is probably the best chance of a pick up for a Republican candidate.
So after all of this, Republicans will still need one more state. After the five states we've covered so far (Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia), John McCain did not have even a close contest in any other state. The next closest races were in Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire- each with a 9% gap. This does not bode well for Republicans. They have to hope for an economic status quo in 2012, as well as an inspiring and capable candidate.
It boils down to win Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and any one of: Colorado, Iowa or New Hampshire- AND- at the same time hold onto all other states, and the Republican candidate wins. That's a very steep hill to climb and a turn-around not seen since Clinton in 1992.
Rising Employment Numbers, Implications for 2012
The Labor Department announced March's unemployment figures dropped in 34 states, the largest number of states reporting employment gains since June 2010. March's national unemployment rate changed little at 8.8 percent, but certain states saw definite progress.
Texas added 37,200 net jobs in March, followed not far behind by Missouri and Florida. However, California, Connecticut, Louisiana and Maryland all posted large losses.
2010 Census results show a migrating population to more "business friendly" states, and this may become an even more evident trend in years to come. It is not mere chance that Texas, Missouri and Florida gained jobs. It is likely President Obama will use these improved numbers to support stimulus provisions and other directives. It is also just as likely Republican candidates in local and state races will use these numbers to highlight how the political climate in a state like Texas is more advantageous to citizenry than states like California and Connecticut.
We will follow this point of contention here in the months ahead.
Texas added 37,200 net jobs in March, followed not far behind by Missouri and Florida. However, California, Connecticut, Louisiana and Maryland all posted large losses.
2010 Census results show a migrating population to more "business friendly" states, and this may become an even more evident trend in years to come. It is not mere chance that Texas, Missouri and Florida gained jobs. It is likely President Obama will use these improved numbers to support stimulus provisions and other directives. It is also just as likely Republican candidates in local and state races will use these numbers to highlight how the political climate in a state like Texas is more advantageous to citizenry than states like California and Connecticut.
We will follow this point of contention here in the months ahead.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Republicans Lack Enthusiasm for Candidates
In a recent poll conducted by ABC, only 43 percent of respondents "leaning republican" say they are happy with their choice of potential republican presidential candidates. Leaning republicans responded positively with 65 percent at this time in 2007.
In head-to-head polls with Obama, Romney is well ahead of other candidates. In the same ABC poll, he was measured four point behind Obama (49-45). Huckabee was six points behind (50-44), Trump at 12 points (52-40). Michelle Bachman, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin all faired even worse.
Between April 10-12, Democracy Corp (a group affiliated with the Democratic Party) polled 100 likely voters. In the survey 46 percent said they would likely vote for the incumbent President Obama, while 48 percent said they would vote for Mitt Romney. The sample is a solid reflection of the American public, with slightly higher education levels. It is worth noting 100 is a fairly small sample and most statisticians like to have between 250-300 in a random sample.
In head-to-head polls with Obama, Romney is well ahead of other candidates. In the same ABC poll, he was measured four point behind Obama (49-45). Huckabee was six points behind (50-44), Trump at 12 points (52-40). Michelle Bachman, Tim Pawlenty, Newt Gingrich and Sarah Palin all faired even worse.
Between April 10-12, Democracy Corp (a group affiliated with the Democratic Party) polled 100 likely voters. In the survey 46 percent said they would likely vote for the incumbent President Obama, while 48 percent said they would vote for Mitt Romney. The sample is a solid reflection of the American public, with slightly higher education levels. It is worth noting 100 is a fairly small sample and most statisticians like to have between 250-300 in a random sample.
Monday, April 18, 2011
A More Informed America
Let me start by explaining this blog's purpose. Political elections, whether national or local, have always been shaped by public perception. Sometimes perceptions are accurate, sometimes they're not. Sometimes we have trouble seeing the forest for all of the trees. In an age of sound bites and open media partisanship, it's hard to get the full picture.
This blog will not endorse any one political candidate, party or idea. It will stay up to date with national and political races, the issues influencing those races and how the political process works. The content found here will not be editorial in nature, but rather an amalgamation of political news stories and events from around the country. I'll leave the opinionated statements and theorizing to others. I will also provide regular updates. But keep in mind years like 2011 may not offer as much to write about as the summer of 2012 will.
Thanks for reading. Please feel free to share any news you think I may have missed or left out.
This blog will not endorse any one political candidate, party or idea. It will stay up to date with national and political races, the issues influencing those races and how the political process works. The content found here will not be editorial in nature, but rather an amalgamation of political news stories and events from around the country. I'll leave the opinionated statements and theorizing to others. I will also provide regular updates. But keep in mind years like 2011 may not offer as much to write about as the summer of 2012 will.
Thanks for reading. Please feel free to share any news you think I may have missed or left out.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)