President Obama's 2008 election win can easily be characterized as a landslide with a 365 electoral college votes to McCain's 173. If Obama wins the exact same states with the revised electoral college numbers, he still wins easily with a margin of 358 to 180. That is what they call a "big IF."
It is no coincidence the Democratic party decided to host its 2012 convention in Charlotte, NC. Obama won North Carolina with 50 percent of the vote and a 14,000 vote margin- out of approximately 4.25 million votes cast. North Carolinians should expect a barrage of presidential campaign ads in 2012. Their 15 electoral votes represent a large swing in a state that is truly up for grabs.
Neighboring Virginia, with 13 votes, went to Obama with a slightly larger margin (53%). However, an April 8 poll from Roanoke College shows Senator George Allen ahead of Tim Kaine by 13 points. Comparing a senate race to a presidential one is definitely apples to oranges, but Kaine is a big name in Virginia and the margin is staggering. Republicans also gained two house seats in Virginia during the 2010 campaign. There seems to be a strong undercurrent against Democrats here- but it is truly a toss up as well.
Anyone listening to election coverage in the previous decade already knows Florida and Ohio are huge battleground states, and that will likely remain the same in 2012. Florida is perhaps slightly more important now that it gained two electoral college votes with Ohio losing two. The strategy for Florida is also different because it does not have the huge areas leaning definitely for one party, like southern Ohio (Republican) or Cleveland area (Democratic). Republicans gained three house seats in Florida and four in Ohio. This puts another 18 votes in Ohio and 29 in Florida up for grabs.
So after four states, we've covered 75 electoral votes. Even if all these huge gains go in favor of the Republicans (and this would require a very favorable political landscape), the margin is still 283 to 255 in favor of the incumbent President Obama. Therefore, Republicans will also need to pick up Indiana's 11 votes (Obama won with 50% there in 2008), and another state. Indiana is by no means a lock, but is probably the best chance of a pick up for a Republican candidate.
So after all of this, Republicans will still need one more state. After the five states we've covered so far (Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia), John McCain did not have even a close contest in any other state. The next closest races were in Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire- each with a 9% gap. This does not bode well for Republicans. They have to hope for an economic status quo in 2012, as well as an inspiring and capable candidate.
It boils down to win Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and any one of: Colorado, Iowa or New Hampshire- AND- at the same time hold onto all other states, and the Republican candidate wins. That's a very steep hill to climb and a turn-around not seen since Clinton in 1992.
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